Daniel Espino, Cade Smith top candidates for Guardians’ 40-man roster ahead of Rule 5 draft deadline

Now that the Guardians have found the franchise’s next manager in Stephen Vogt, they will finish filling out his coaching staff, then the front office will turn its sights to the 40-man roster ahead of the Nov. 14 deadline that precedes the Rule 5 draft.

The draft will be held Dec. 6 at the winter meetings.

Unlike years past, the Guardians’ system does not have a roster crunch of players who are of critical need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. That is partially due to already having added several young prospects to the 40-man roster the last few seasons, which was somewhat fueled by the lost pandemic season of 2020, and a somewhat down year in the system by some prospects.

Any player signed or drafted in 2019 who was 18 or younger is eligible for the Rule 5 draft in 2023, and any player signed or drafted in 2020 who was 19 years or older is eligible for the Rule 5 draft in 2023. Any player not on the 40-man roster who was previously eligible is also still eligible to be selected.

Cleveland has already added OF Johnathan Rodriguez to its 40-man roster earlier this week before he was eligible to be a minor-league free agent on Nov. 7. Rodriguez, a right-handed hitting outfielder, was previously eligible in 2021, and led the Guardians minor leaguers in batting average (.286), homers (29) and RBI (88). He was Cleveland’s third-round pick in 2017, a former switch hitter who has an aggressive approach at the plate with strikeout issues, but broke out in 2022 and has produced enough to warrant protection from losing him for nothing in the Rule 5 draft.

Notable first-year eligible players for the Guardians:

• RHP Cade Smith: Undrafted free agent in 2020 out of Hawaii. Reached Triple-A in 2023, throwing up to 98 mph with a slider and splitter. Relievers are the most commonly selected players in the Rule 5 draft, and Smith could likely be added to the 40-man roster for these reasons.

• RHP Daniel Espino: Cleveland’s first-round pick out of Georgia Premier Academy in 2019 was considered potentially the best pitching prospect in all of baseball in 2022, armed with a 100 mph fastball and three “plus” pitches. He spent most of 2022 on the injured list with a knee and shoulder issue, then had shoulder surgery in 2023. Still, Cleveland will add the prized pitching prospect to the 40-man roster in hopes he regains his form when he returns, hopefully in the summer of 2024.

• RHP Tanner Burns: A first-round pick out of Auburn in 2020, Burns progressed to Double-A Akron quickly in 2021 but has hit a wall, struggling to regain his 96 mph heater in college along with other quality pitches. Finished 2023 in the bullpen and is unlikely to be added to the 40-man roster, even though other teams may be enticed by his former draft status.

• RHP Mason Hickman: 2020 draft, fifth-round pick out of Vanderbilt is a tall reliever who throws 92 mph with a big breaking ball and misses some bats, but is an unlikely candidate.

• RHP Josh Wolf: 2019 high school draft pick of the Mets, traded to Cleveland in the Francisco Lindor deal. Struggled in 2023 and unlikely to be selected.

• INF Yordys Valdes: 2019 second-round high school pick who is an all-glove, light-hitting infielder unlikely to be selected.

• INF Christian Cairo: 2019 fourth-round high school pick that profile as a utility infielder that is unlikely to be selected.

Notable previously Rule 5 eligible players:

• RP Nick Mikolajchak (2022): On pace to be added to the 40-man after 2021 with sterling minor-league relief stats, had Tommy John in 2023 after a down year in 2022.

• RP Andrew Misiaszek (2022): Similar to Mikolajchak, had a strong 2022 but had arm surgery in 2023.

• RP Nic Enright (2022, drafted by Miami, returned 2023): Selected by the Marlins in the 2022 Rule 5 draft and returned to Cleveland. Diagnosed and beat cancer before returning to pitch in 2022. Throws up to 93-94 mph with good control and a big breaking ball.

• RHP Ethan Hankins (2022): Cleveland’s 2018 first-rounder as a prep arm in Georgia missed 2020 with the pandemic canceling the minor league season, then missed all of 2021 and 2022 with Tommy John. Returned to mixed results in 2023 and hasn’t surpassed High-A, making him a hard candidate to protect or select.

• C Bryan Lavastida (2022: Previously added to the 40-man roster in 2020, Lavastida played his way off the roster in 2023 but cleared waivers. Will be a minor-league free agent on Nov. 7 if not added.

• INF Aaron Bracho (2021): Former high-profile international free agent signing in 2017 struggled until 2023 where he had a modest rebound with 17 homers. Former switch hitter who now only hits left-handed doesn’t have a concrete defensive home and struggles against left-handers, but does have pop.

• INF Dayan Frias (2022): 2017 minor-league free agent and switch hitter had a solid 2023 season on both sides of the ball at High-A Lake County, but is probably too far down the add to the roster right now.

With Rodriguez already added, Espino and Smith seem like the only candidates to be also added next week, and only Espino is guaranteed. A player would have to be dropped in order for any to be added.