The prevalence of texting and Zoom calls has limited the impact and excitement of the MLB Winter Meetings in the last decade or so. That, combined with uncertainty over their TV deal and revenue, made it all but certain the Guardians’ trip to Nashville for the this year’s Winter Meetings would be quiet.
The 2024 MLB Draft lottery on Dec 6. provided a jolt to that idea.
With 2.7% odds to land the No. 1 overall pick, the ping-pong balls pinged and ponged the Guardians’ way after the Washington Nationals drew the top overall pick, but were unable to keep it due to being a revenue payout team that picked in the top 10 the year prior (revenue payee teams cannot pick in the top 10 two years in a row in the new MLB lottery draft format).
The stroke of fortune can be a franchise-changing opportunity for the Guardians, who have never picked No. 1 overall in franchise history.
The 2023 draft had three (Paul Skenes, Dylan Crews, and Wyatt Langford) to five (Max Clark, Walker Jenkins) players who could have been considered No. 1 overall picks in any given class. While the 2024 draft may not have that group of top selections, there are potentially impactful options for the Guardians to choose from.
• Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz is poised to be one of the first college bats off the board whether or not he goes No. 1 overall to the Guardians. The 6-foot-5 left-handed hitter has the coveted power Cleveland has been lacking. He swatted 39 homers over the past two seasons for the Demon Deacons, and pairs that with an elite eye at the plate (111 walks compared to 88 strikeouts, and a chase rate of 14.6%), while hitting .345/.499/.708 in his first two collegiate seasons. The track record of taking college first baseman early in the draft is a bit shaky, however, and Wake Forest’s home park is considered to be hitter-friendly.
• Over on the West Coast is infielder/outfielder Travis Bazzana, a native of Australia who is playing his college ball at always competitive Oregon State. The 21-year-old left-handed hitter has posted a .340/.463/.549 batting line over his two seasons in Corvallis, to go along with 17 homers and 56 steals in 60 tries. Like Kurtz, Bazzana rarely chases pitches out of the zone (15.5%). He also put up a huge .375/.456/.581 batting line, with six homers and 18 steals in the Cape Cod League in 2023, taking home MVP honors. He can play second base and perhaps some outfield.
• West Virginia infielder JJ Weatherholt is another bat who could be considered the top pick or could go in the top five. Over two seasons for the Mountaineers, the left-hander has hit .381/.466/.635 with 21 homers and 51 steals. Weatherholt is a bit more aggressive as a hitter (walk rate of 9.7% and strikeout rate of just 8.21%), and there are questions about his ultimate defensive position, but like the two others above him, the bat is what he will be drafted for.
• As for pitching options, right now Kurtz’s newest teammate, 6-4 right-hander Chase Burns appears to be the top option. After posting a 3.54 ERA in 152 2/3 innings with 217 strikeouts and just 47 walks at Tennessee the last two seasons, Burns transferred to Wake Forest, which is considered to have a strong pitching development program, for 2024.
A lot can change between now and July, especially for the high school class, where draft prospects often rise up boards late in their senior years. But the crop of college bats in the 2024 class appears to be the best bet for the Guardians.
At the moment, all four options could be quick risers through the minor-league farm system after playing three years of college ball in strong conferences and at high levels.
In addition to picking first overall in the draft, Cleveland now also holds the 36th (Competitive Balance Around A) and 48th (second-round) picks in the draft. The latter two could move up depending on how free agency plays out this winter.
In addition to landing the top overall pick, Cleveland also benefits from the draft bonus pool associated with those picks. The 2024 draft slots and overall bonus pools for teams aren’t currently known. But in 2023, the team that had the ninth pick (where Cleveland was projected to pick based on the odds) would have added over $4 million to its bonus pool if it had moved up to No. 1 in the draft. In 2023, the Guardians had a bonus pool of $8,736,700.00 allotted to their picks. They ended up spending $9,071,280 to sign 19 of their 21 picks, spreading the bonus pool money down the draft board in an attempt to collect more talent, as they typically aim to do every draft cycle.
Outside of 2020, Cleveland has spent above its bonus pool allotment to the point of paying a fine, but never losing a pick in the draft the following year. This windfall of picks and bonus money available to them in the 2024 draft has the potential to jolt a farm system and franchise in an otherwise stagnant position at the moment.
